Innovative Business Modelling for Understanding Criminal Networks and Illicit Markets

Abstract

Financial incentives serve as a primary motivator and enabler for organisations to engage in illicit activities, like drug trafficking. Such illicit activities often involve coercion and the use of violence. Drug trafficking, recognised as one of the most profitable criminal enterprises, also demonstrates extreme resilience and adaptability in the face of law enforcement measures. Nonetheless, most law enforcement efforts focus primarily on disrupting the underlying logistics process and the associated criminal network.  

To better capture the complexity and underlying dynamics of criminal organisations, insight is needed into the relationship between the criminal value chain (financial, logistical and social) and the impact of interventions over time. In this paper we illustrate how a computational system approach based on criminal business modelling can be used to better understand the resilience of illicit markets. The explorative computational approach models potential adaptations by a criminal organisation to different types of interventions that are based on the underlying criminal business model. Its use stimulates critical thinking and the development of more innovative and effective interventions.