Using Predictive Policing to Prevent Residential Burglary

Findings from the Pilot Project P4 in Baden-Württemberg, Germany

Abstract

In October 2015 the ‘Pilot Project Predictive Policing’ (P4) was started in the German federal state of Baden Württemberg. A predictive policing strategy was applied in the context of residential burglary. An evaluation study of the first six months of the pilot was carried out by the Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law. The article describes how the strategy was applied and summarizes the main findings of the evaluation study. Despite some positive findings the impact remains unclear and the expectable crime reducing effects appear to be moderate. Within the police force the acceptance of predictive policing is a divisive issue. Future research is recommended.